Predicting the 2024 GRAMMYs.
It’s that time of year again!
artwork by Sally North.
With the 66th Annual Grammy Award ceremony quickly approaching, it’s once again time for Firebird to dive into the nominations, discuss our personal picks, and predict which of our favorite artists will take home a gilded gramophone this year.
Album of the Year
World Music Radio, Jon Batiste
The Record, Boygenius
Endless Summer Vacation, Miley Cyrus
Did You Know That There's a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd, Lana Del Rey
The Age of Pleasure, Janelle Monáe
Guts, Olivia Rodrigo
Midnights, Taylor Swift
SOS, SZA
Who will win: Midnights, Taylor Swift
Album of the Year seems to be the most contentious category at this year’s ceremony. Indie heads are gunning for Boygenius or Lana Del Rey. Pop listeners are leaning towards a Guts victory. SZA die hards want SOS to take home the award. However, I think a T-Swift victory is in the cards this evening. Let’s put it this way—if there’s one thing for certain on this planet, it’s that Taylor Swift will draw tons of press and public discourse. Putting quality aside, since Grammy ratings have been plummeting, they are in desperate need of a high profile, record-breaking win this evening. After Swift’s momentous year, and 4th win for her in this category would be best way to ensure good ratings.
Who should win: Midnights, Taylor Swift or SOS, SZA
Who was snubbed: Desire, I Want to Turn Into You, Caroline Polachek
Record of the Year
“Worship,” Jon Batiste
“Not Strong Enough,” Boygenius
“Flowers,” Miley Cyrus
“What Was I Made For?” (from the motion picture Barbie), Billie Eilish
“On My Mama,” Victoria Monét
“Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo
“Anti-Hero,” Taylor Swift
“Kill Bill,” SZA
Who will win: “Flowers,” Miley Cyrus
Who should win: “Flowers,” Miley Cyrus
Every year, I find it beneficial to re-explain the difference between the Song and Record of the Year categories. Where Song of the Year is meant to be a songwriter’s award (focusing on lyrical/melodic prowess), Record of the Year is designed to highlight the production and performance on a particular track. In the past, Record of the Year has gone to the biggest commercial hit among the nominees, and if history repeats itself this year, a “Flowers” win for Cyrus’ #1 smash seems imminent.
Who was snubbed: “Paint The Town Red,” Doja Cat & “Boy’s a Liar, Pt. 2,” PinkPantheress and Ice Spice
Following the “biggest hit of the year” logic, it’s surprising that “Paint The Town Red” and “Boy’s a Liar, Pt. 2” missed the cut in this category. Where “Boy’s a Liar, Pt. 2” felt like the first true viral sensation of 2023 upon its release in January, “Paint The Town Red” became first hip hop song to reach the top spot of the Billboard Hot 100 this year. Doja Cat, PinkPantheress, and Ice Spice heavily influenced the commercial landscape of 2023, and they each deserved a spot in this general field category.
Song of the Year
“A&W,” Lana Del Rey
“Anti-Hero,” Taylor Swift
“Butterfly,” Jon Batiste
“Dance The Night” (from Barbie The Album), Dua Lipa
“Flowers,”Miley Cyrus
“Kill Bill,” SZA
“Vampire,”Oliva Rodrigo
“What Was I Made For?” (from the motion picture Barbie), Billie Eilish
Who will win: “Flowers,” Miley Cyrus
Since the winner of Record of the Year usually goes on to win Song of the Year, another win for “Flowers” seems likely in this category.
Who should win: “Anti-Hero,” Taylor Swift
Fun fact—Taylor Swift is the most nominated artist of all-time in the Song of the Year category (seven to date). However, she has still yet to win the coveted songwriting prize. After the egregious “All Too Well” snub last year (Bonnie Raitt, you will rue this day), a win for Swift is long overdue.
Who was snubbed: “Escapism,” RAYE featuring 070 Shake & “I Remember Everything,” Zach Bryan featuring Kacey Musgraves
RAYE and 070 Shake’s “Escapism” is one of the few TikTok songs that actually deserved to go viral. It’s fun, it’s catchy, it’s brilliantly composed. Although we expect the Grammys to snub hard-core talent like RAYE, it still would have been nice to see her pop up in this category. The Grammys also seem to have an issue with nominating Zach Bryan in the main categories (missing a nomination for 2022’s “Something In The Orange” last year too). “I Remember Everything” is the rare country ballad that boasts effective lyricism and profound emotional acuity, and with Grammy darling Kacey Musgraves at her side, it’s surprising to see his snub.
Best New Artist
Gracie Abrams
Fred Again..
Ice Spice
Jelly Roll
Coco Jones
Noah Kahan
Victoria Monét
The War and Treaty
Who will win: Noah Kahan
Who should win: Ice Spice or Victoria Monét
Who was snubbed: Wednesday
Although Wednesday is not a “new” act by any means, the Grammys follow a completely warped and distorted set of guidelines for the Best New Artist category (e.g., Lizzo debuting in 2013 but earning a Best New Artist nomination six years later in 2019). Given the flexibility of this category, I would have loved to have seen Wednesday pop up in Best New Artist this year. Rat Saw God was an easy 2023 highlight, earning Wednesday immense traction and acclaim in the alternative music world.
Best Pop Solo Performance
“Flowers,” Miley Cyrus
“Paint The Town Red,” Doja Cat
“What Was I Made For?” [from the motion picture Barbie], Billie Eilish
“Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo
“Anti-Hero,” Taylor Swift
Who will win: “Flowers,” Miley Cyrus
If Cyrus misses Song or Record of the year, they’ll definitely award her for Best Pop Solo Performance.
Who should win: “Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo
Who was snubbed: “Greedy,” Tate McRae
Best Pop Duo or Group Performance
“Thousand Miles,” Miley Cyrus featuring Brandi Carlile
“Candy Necklace,” Lana Del Rey featuring Jon Batiste
“Never Felt So Alone,” Labrinth featuring Billie Eilish
“Karma,” Taylor Swift featuring Ice Spice
“Ghost In The Machine,” SZA featuring Phoebe Bridgers
Who will win: “Karma,” Taylor Swift featuring Ice Spice
As The Guardian said in a headline a few days prior, Taylor Swift is eyeing a record-breaking night at this year’s Grammy Award ceremony. Although “Karma” was no one’s favorite collaboration of the year, the category is not as stacked as it’s been in years prior (a la “Kiss Me More” in 2022, or “Unholy” in 2023). “Karma” is the most recognizable hit in the bunch, and I’d imagine the Grammys are hoping to reward Ice Spice somehow without having to give Miss Maraj an award.
Who should win: “Ghost In The Machine,” SZA featuring Phoebe Bridgers
Best Pop Duo or Group Performance was an interesting category this year, specifically because it was dominated by high-profile pop girlie collaborations. Out of all the tracks in this bunch, “Ghost In The Machine” was easily my favorite. Although no one expected a SZA x Phoebe Bridgers collaboration when SZA announced the track list of SOS, pop, R&B, and indie worlds collided on “Ghost In The Machine,” creating a surprisingly beautiful track in the process.
Who was snubbed: “Boy’s a Liar, Pt. 2,” PinkPantheress and Ice Spice
I am not a fan of the PinkPantheress erasure this year. Give the girl her flowers!
Best Pop Vocal Album
Chemistry, Kelly Clarkson
Endless Summer Vacation, Miley Cyrus
Guts, Olivia Rodrigo
- (Subtract), Ed Sheeran
Midnights, Taylor Swift
Who will win: Midnights, Taylor Swift
Historically, Best Pop Vocal Album has gone to the most commercially successful project in the bunch (e.g., 2017’s 25, 2022’s Sour, and 2023’s Harry’s House, to name a few). With that being established, Midnights is an easy no-brainer for the award. With 65 weeks in the Top 10 of the Billboard 200 (to date), a record-breaking 1.578m sales debut, and a historic occupation of all ten spots on the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10, Midnights is the epitome of a commercial smash album. Out of all the categories I've discussed, I’m most certain about Swift taking this one.
Who should win: Midnights, Taylor Swift
Don’t get me wrong—Rodrigo’s Guts was a phenomenal record. But in the end, 2023 was Taylor Swift’s year. In the horrible outcome that Swift gets snubbed in the main categories, they will at least reward her with Best Pop Vocal Album.
Who was snubbed: Desire, I Want to Turn Into You, Caroline Polachek
The following commentary was done by Kristen Wallace, our Copy Editor!
Best R&B Performance
“Summer Too Hot,” Chris Brown
“Back To Love,” Robert Glasper featuring SiR and Alex Isley
“ICU,” Coco Jones
“How Does It Make You Feel,” Victoria Monét
“Kill Bill,” SZA
Who will win: “Kill Bill,” SZA
Who should win: “Kill Bill,” SZA
“Kill Bill” was the immediate smash from SOS, and there’s no competition among these nominees to take this crown from arguably the most dominant artist of this eligibility period.
Who was snubbed: “Always,” Daniel Caesar
If included, “Always” would be my runner-up here. Caesar utilizes his stunning range to great effect on this NEVER ENOUGH single about dependability through tough times, and it’s a more impressive vocal performance than anything else on this list.
Best R&B Song
“Angel,” Halle
“Back To Love,” Robert Glasper featuring SiR and Alex Isley
“ICU,” Coco Jones
“On My Mama,” Victoria Monét
“Snooze,” SZA
Who will win: “Snooze,” SZA
“Snooze” came on strong late in the SOS album cycle—as we speak, it’s still top ten on the Hot 100 after 59 weeks—and is likely to continue that momentum by taking home this Grammy. It was also critically recognized upon release as one of the strongest songs on the project, with fans demanding it be pushed as a single. They inevitably did get their wish, and “Snooze” will inevitably get this win.
Who should win: “On My Mama,” Victoria Monét
The committee has a chance to make themselves look good here. They should take it. After Monet’s VMAs fiasco—she was told that she wasn’t a popular enough artist for the main stage—it would be poetic if the main single from JAGUAR II takes home this award over a commercial juggernaut like SZA.
Who was snubbed: “Moonlight,” Kali Uchis
The Academy nominated four of the same artists across Best R&B Song and Best R&B Performance, so naturally everyone else in the genre got squeezed out of these categories. This would have been Kali’s first solo nomination, and the perfect sensuality of “Moonlight” would have fit perfectly in this category.
Best Progressive R&B Album
Since I Have A Lover, 6LACK
The Love Album: Off The Grid, Diddy
Nova, Terrace Martin and James Fauntleroy
The Age of Pleasure, Janelle Monáe
SOS, SZA
Who will win: SOS, SZA
Who should win: SOS, SZA
SZA is this year’s most nominated artist, and no other album in this category holds a candle to the dexterity and impact that SOS has had since its release. Any other decision here would border on malpractice.
Who was snubbed: NEVER ENOUGH, Daniel Caesar
The release of NEVER ENOUGH signified Daniel Caesar's return to the mainstream four years after 2019’s CASE STUDY 01. One of the most unique voices in contemporary R&B should have more than one Grammy win in his career.
Best R&B Album
Girls Night Out, Babyface
What I Didn't Tell You (Deluxe), Coco Jones
Special Occasion, Emily King
Jaguar II, Victoria Monét
Clear 2: Soft Life EP, Summer Walker
Who will win: Jaguar II, Victoria Monét
Who should win: Jaguar II, Victoria Monét
In recent years, Victoria Monet’s pen has been the worst kept secret in the industry (most notably for Ariana Grande) and Jaguar II shows Monet at her best, complete with homages to classic R&B overtures, party-starters, and self-affirmative anthems. This is her first year being Grammy-nominated for her own music, too. A weaker year from these other nominees combined with a strong individual case for Monet should net her a win in this category.
Who was snubbed: I Thought It’d Be Different, Rory
As a podcaster, curator, and producer, Rory wears many hats, and he reached deep into his curation bag here. This record features a who’s who of talented R&B mavens like Ari Lennox, dvsn, Alex Isley, Shantel May, and Emotional Oranges, just to name a few. He’s the wizard responsible for elevating each and every artist who contributes to this symphony. What’s more, nominating I Thought It’d Be Different would have been a great chance to spotlight all of the artists included in this collection of luscious production and passionate vocals.
Best Rap Performance
“The Hillbillies,” Baby Keem featuring Kendrick Lamar
“Love Letter,” Black Thought
“Rich Flex,” Drake and 21 Savage
“SCIENTISTS & ENGINEERS,” Killer Mike featuring André 3000, Future, and Eryn Allen Kane
“Players,” Coi Leray
Who will win: “The Hillbillies,” Baby Keem featuring Kendrick Lamar
Kendrick Lamar has 14 wins and 39 nominations in his career, and his latest win was also a collaboration with his cousin Baby Keem, which won this exact award in 2022. Now, “family ties” is much better than “The Hillbillies,” which underscores the fact that the latter doesn’t have much of a case to be nominated for its rapping performance to begin with. But, given their history, Keem & Lamar might take this home anyway.
Who should win: “SCIENTISTS & ENGINEERS,” Killer Mike featuring André 3000, Future, and Eryn Allen Kane
Andre 3000 delivered one of hip-hop’s best verses of the year on “SCIENTISTS & ENGINEERS,” which should win on his back alone. Add in great contributions from Killer Mike and Future, and you have an immediate highlight on an otherwise inconsistent MICHAEL, which itself is up for Best Rap Album. It won’t win there, but this single deserves recognition here.
Who was snubbed: “Paint the Town Red,” Doja Cat
If the committee wanted to shine a light on female acts in hip hop, they should have looked no further than Doja Cat, who’s “Paint the Town Red” was actually the first song this year to break the genre’s infamous absence from the peak of the Billboard Hot 100. Critically well-received and commercially successful, how the addictive “Paint” lost a nomination to a soulless song like “Players” is puzzling.
Best Melodic Rap Performance
“Sittin' on Top of the World,” Burna Boy featuring 21 Savage
“Attention,” Doja Cat
“Spin Bout U,” Drake and 21 Savage
“All My Life,” Lil Durk featuring J. Cole
“Low,” SZA
Who will win: “All My Life,” Lil Durk featuring J. Cole
Who should win: “All My Life,” Lil Durk featuring J. Cole
The energy around “All My Life” is eerily similar to that of 21 Savage’s J. Cole-assisted “a lot,” which won Best Rap Song in 2020. A rapper known for street-level content taps Cole, one of the biggest “conscious” artists of his generation, for an introspective track that elevates the trap rapper into a more thoughtful light. You see what I mean? Both songs gave the Academy an opportunity to acknowledge trap’s popularity by awarding a hit that’s both digestible and still squarely rooted in the subgenre. 21 Savage won his first Grammy with “a lot”; I expect Durk to do the same with “All My Life.”
Who was snubbed: “fukumean,” Gunna
Gunna had a serious case for rap song of the summer with “fukumean,” and no one really expected him to be able to come back so effortlessly in the controversial aftermath of the YSL case. Especially not with the noticeable–and likely intentional–lack of features across A Gift & A Curse. I didn’t necessarily expect Grammy wins, but Gunna’s ultra-smooth viral smash should’ve at least been on this list: his exclusion is even worse when you look at some of these uninspiring selections.
Best Rap Song
“Attention,” Doja Cat
“Barbie World” (from Barbie The Album), Nicki Minaj and Ice Spice featuring Aqua
“Just Wanna Rock,” Lil Uzi Vert
“Rich Flex,”Drake and 21 Savage
“Scientists & Engineers,” Killer Mike featuring André 3000, Future, and Eryn Allen Kane
Who will win: “Rich Flex,” Drake and 21 Savage
Who should win: “Rich Flex,” Drake and 21 Savage
Drake has a weird history with the Grammys, with 51 nominations but only five wins. Both “Rich Flex” and “SCIENTISTS & ENGINEERS” are nominated for Best Rap Song and Best Rap Performance, and the latter has more impressive rapping performances, but you could make the case that the former is the better song overall. That distinction should allow both great cuts to get recognized, and for the Grammys to award the most dominant rapper of a generation with another win.
Who was snubbed: “FE!N,” Travis Scott & Playboi Carti
It’s surprising that UTOPIA, up for Best Rap Album while also being the highest-selling rap album of the year, has no nominations in any other rap category. “FE!N” has taken on a life of its own as arguably the biggest song in the brief history of the bubbling rage subgenre. While features were still hidden, listeners hotly debated who was even on the song, until it was revealed to be “deep voice” Carti. Scott even plays the chorus over and over at each of his CIRCUS MAXIMUS shows—seven times at the United Center in January, if I counted correctly—so this “FE!N” snub shows you that the Academy still doesn’t have their finger on the pulse.
Best Rap Album
Her Loss, Drake and 21 Savage
MICHAEL, Killer Mike
HEROES & VILLAINS, Metro Boomin
King’s Disease III, Nas
UTOPIA, Travis Scott
Who will win: Her Loss, Drake and 21 Savage
Her Loss should win this award primarily because of its competition. The Grammys rectified Nas’ infamous lack of wins back in 2020 with the original King’s Disease: KDII got nominated the year after without a win, and a similar fate is likely in the cards for III. MICHAEL should get recognition in other rap categories (above) but overall is outclassed by the other records here. The latest efforts from Travis Scott or Metro Boomin won’t win for reasons largely beyond their control (more on both in a bit). To its credit though, Her Loss was largely seen as a return to form for Drake, so a win here would not be beyond the pale.
Who should win: UTOPIA, Travis Scott or HEROES & VILLAINS, Metro Boomin
Scott won’t win this award primarily because of the politics around his stardom: the ASTROWORLD Festival incident still looms large. You can see that in UTOPIA’s lack of wins across other award shows and its noticeable absence from many year-end lists: it was nominated for Rap AOTY at the BBMAs, losing to Her Loss. UTOPIA should win this category for its dominant position as the only real “event” in mainstream hip-hop this year as it sold over 1.6 million copies, easily the genre’s highest mark in 2023.
The case for Metro Boomin is clear, too. A rare producer-led album that still majors in cohesion, Metro is a savant at the peak of his powers who continues to put every artist he works with in a position to succeed. Massive in its own right, HEROES is surprisingly consistent, and an award here would be shared amongst all the artists who contributed vocals on the project, including the likes of megastars The Weeknd and Travis Scott. Unfortunately, it’s rather unlikely that Metro, as a producer, wins in an album category: I’m surprised he was nominated to begin with. He has an outside shot at Producer of the Year, though, which he’d deserve.
Who was snubbed: SCARING THE HOES, JPEGMAFIA & Danny Brown
Talk about an event album. To be fair, the discourse about this record was almost entirely online, which somewhat detracts from its case, but SCARING THE HOES might be the most polarizing rap album of the year. This record is full of robust, organized chaos and should have been recognized as a highlight of underground industrial hip-hop this year.
edited by Joseph Mooney, Editor-in-Chief.
artwork by Sally North.